3/5/2023 0 Comments Weather forecast![]() In 650 BC, the Babylonians predicted the weather from cloud patterns as well as astrology. Main article: Timeline of meteorology Ancient forecasting įor millennia, people have tried to forecast the weather. Weather forecasting is a part of the economy, for example, in 2009, the US spent approximately $5.1 billion on weather forecasting, producing benefits estimated at six times as much. Since outdoor activities are severely curtailed by heavy rain, snow and wind chill, forecasts can be used to plan activities around these events, and to plan ahead and survive them. ![]() On an everyday basis, many use weather forecasts to determine what to wear on a given day. Temperature forecasts are used by utility companies to estimate demand over coming days. Forecasts based on temperature and precipitation are important to agriculture, and therefore to traders within commodity markets. Weather warnings are important forecasts because they are used to protect life and property. There is a vast variety of end uses to weather forecasts. The use of ensembles and model consensus help narrow the error and provide confidence level in the forecast. Hence, forecasts become less accurate as the difference between current time and the time for which the forecast is being made (the range of the forecast) increases. The inaccuracy of forecasting is due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, the massive computational power required to solve the equations that describe the atmosphere, the land, and the ocean, the error involved in measuring the initial conditions, and an incomplete understanding of atmospheric and related processes. Human input is still required to pick the best possible forecast model to base the forecast upon, which involves pattern recognition skills, teleconnections, knowledge of model performance, and knowledge of model biases. Once calculated manually based mainly upon changes in barometric pressure, current weather conditions, and sky condition or cloud cover, weather forecasting now relies on computer-based models that take many atmospheric factors into account. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere, land, and ocean and using meteorology to project how the atmosphere will change at a given place. ![]() People have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia and formally since the 19th century. Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the conditions of the atmosphere for a given location and time. ![]()
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